Chase predicts the world will return to “normal” in 2022 — we’re checking in on recovery
Sapphire Reserve, reloaded… In March 2020, we were told to pack up our workstations. The next month, 14.5M Americans lost their jobs, driving up the unemployment rate to ~15%. The US suffered its largest quarterly GDP drop ever. Nearly two years later, America’s largest bank is predicting that 2022 will be the year things return to normal. JP Morgan Chase predictions:
- “2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions.” Mic. Drop.
- Chase believes the world will achieve population immunity with the help of new therapeutics, expected to be broadly available next year.
- Bill Gates also believes the critical phase of the pandemic will end in ’22.
Recovery check-in… Thanks to speedy vaccine development, the pandemic is waning. Still, only 57% of the world’s population has received a shot, and just 7.5% of Africa’s population is fully vaxxed. Global Covid deaths this year surpassed 2020’s total toll by June. And while Omicron cases have been milderthan Delta so far, there’s a lot we don’t know.
- GDP: By the end of 2022, 66 out of 77 key economies representing 96% of global GDP are expected to be at or above pre-pandemic output.
- Global unemployment is projected to stay slightly above pre-Covid levels next year. US unemployment fell to 4.2% in November, up less than 1 percentage point from pre-pandemic.
- Stocks have rebounded to records after their pandemic plunge in March 2020, with the S&P 500 index more than doubling since. Chase projects continued but slower growth next year.
- Inflation has risen worldwide, but the US had one of the largest increases, with consumer prices hitting a 30-year high. The global supply-chain crisis could last into 2023.
We may never return to “normal”… even when the world recovers economically. The pandemic’s unprecedented human toll can never be reversed. It will be hard to forget how quickly our lives can be turned upside down. We see the world through a new lens now, and that’s affecting everything from job decisions to investment decisions.